Michael Barnard’s TFIE Strategy Briefing

Michael Barnard’s TFIE Strategy Briefing

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Transition Pathway Review

The Netherlands Has Cut Its Hydrogen Future By More Than Half. It Still Hasn’t Modeled Decline
Electrification rises sharply while hydrogen assumptions remain too high.
 • Michael Barnard
There Can Be Enough Biofuel—If Most Things Don’t Use It
Electrification cuts the biomass burden sharply, but resource potential is not the same thing as sustainable fuel delivered at scale.
 • Michael Barnard
The EU’s Leaked Hydrogen Rethink Is More Important Than The Lower Target
Replacing national hydrogen quotas with a credit-based architecture could let Europe create demand without guaranteeing every application, giving…
 • Michael Barnard
Tugboats May Be Where Port Electrification Comes Together First
Bigger ships, better tug geometry, batteries, electric motors and increasingly sophisticated controls are converging in one of shipping’s smallest but…
 • Michael Barnard
DNV And I Get Almost The Same 2050 Shipping Fuel Number. We Don’t Mean The Same Thing.
DNV’s new Maritime Forecast and my fleet-energy pathway converge near 7.6–7.8 EJ of residual molecular energy in 2050. The similarity hides fundamental…
 • Michael Barnard
China Is Most Likely To Build Electric Aviation At Scale First
Batteries, high-speed rail, aerospace sovereignty and coordinated deployment give China the strongest route to substantial electric and hybrid aircraft…
 • Michael Barnard
Farm Electrification Should Follow The Work
Good strategy starts with the jobs farms must perform, not with a shopping list of electric equipment.
 • Michael Barnard
Climate-Tech Hype Keeps Adding Another Layer
From hydrogen supersonics and solar trikes to wave-powered AI and orbital data centers, the hype moment changes. The strategy of attaching one difficult…
 • Michael Barnard
Hydrogen Passenger Aviation Still Doesn’t Add Up
Three years after the integrated systems case against hydrogen passenger aircraft, better engineering, certification work and airport planning let us…
 • Michael Barnard
Cheap Electricity Is a European Productivity Strategy
Europe needs productivity. Cheap, abundant electricity can help deliver it.
 • Michael Barnard
Maritime Carbon Pricing Will Reshape Fleets Before It Reshapes Prices
EU carbon rules are becoming material to shipowners, but the cargo denominator remains large enough that even aggressive carbon pricing is unlikely to…
 • Michael Barnard
Electric Freight Rail Works. America’s Rail Lobby Costed It To Fail.
The Association of American Railroads priced near-total catenary, left key alternatives and savings out, then sold the result as a verdict.
 • Michael Barnard
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