Michael Barnard’s TFIE Strategy Briefing

Michael Barnard’s TFIE Strategy Briefing

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Transition Pathway Review

Hydrogen Passenger Aviation Still Doesn’t Add Up
Three years after the integrated systems case against hydrogen passenger aircraft, better engineering, certification work and airport planning let us…
 • Michael Barnard
Cheap Electricity Is a European Productivity Strategy
Europe needs productivity. Cheap, abundant electricity can help deliver it.
 • Michael Barnard
Maritime Carbon Pricing Will Reshape Fleets Before It Reshapes Prices
EU carbon rules are becoming material to shipowners, but the cargo denominator remains large enough that even aggressive carbon pricing is unlikely to…
 • Michael Barnard
Electric Freight Rail Works. America’s Rail Lobby Costed It To Fail.
The Association of American Railroads priced near-total catenary, left key alternatives and savings out, then sold the result as a verdict.
 • Michael Barnard
Africa’s Hidden Solar Layer Is Becoming Visible From Above
Official solar statistics are still lagging, but satellite evidence from South African malls and Kenyan rooftop mapping supports the import-data thesis.
 • Michael Barnard
Why Hydrogen Still Isn’t Cutting Costs Like Solar Or Batteries
New evidence shows that even my earlier skeptical learning-rate assumptions were too generous.
 • Michael Barnard
What Drove The Hydrogen Madness? The Detour Was Avoidable
The problems were known long before the latest hype cycle.
 • Michael Barnard
Hydrogen Has Narrative Density. Electrification Has Deployment Density.
Media and PR make hydrogen look far more prevalent and commercially mature than the physical economy says it is.
 • Michael Barnard
Poland’s Coal Transition Has Become A Capacity Problem
Coal fell to 52.7% of generation in 2025, yet high-emitting plants remain eligible for capacity-market support through 2028.
 • Michael Barnard
Hydrogen Is A Tonnes Market. MWh Invents An Energy Market Around It.
Heat, power and storage are other markets; until they create material hydrogen demand, industrial buyers set the denominator.
 • Michael Barnard
As Geopolitics Fragments, Electricity Interconnection Gains Strategic Value
Four years after I argued for strategic energy interdependence, the HVDC pipeline shows security value joining markets, renewables and adequacy.
 • Michael Barnard
Freight Electrification Won’t Follow One Global Template
China, India, Europe and the U.S. start with very different mixes of road, rail and water, so falling battery costs produce different freight pathways.
 • Michael Barnard
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