Nuclear’s compact plant footprint is real, but land use is only one siting variable. Cost, schedule, financing risk, delivery, cooling, fuel cycle, and waste remain the binding constraints.
Another excellent analysis, Michael. Good to see agrivoltaics mentioned. You note the IEA report estimates 2 million square km (km2) of land area required by 2050 for solar and wind installations. As several analyses in recent years have noted, as electrification supersedes fossil fuel and biomass combustion in the coming decades in nearly every end-use of all sectors (excluding big ships and planes, and some industrial heat processes), the amount of land required for 90 percent of energy services satisfied with solar PV systems would take up ~2 percent of existing cultivated fields. Given 5 billion hectares (50 million km2) of cultivated fields worldwide (3 billion grazing lands and 2 billion croplands), suggests about 10 million km2 of elevated and appropriately spaced agrivoltaics are needed. This is more than IEA's utility-scale solar parks (and wind) estimate, where the solar panels are densely packed together and close to the ground, and which often compete with farmers for prime land, resulting in NIMBY reactions. Compared to nuclear, which also requires significant water use for cooling, the land size differences shrink to inconsequential with agrivoltaics. And wind power, plus end-use efficiency/demand-side flex mgnt, will clearly satisfy a significant component, allowing for the fact that agrivoltaics can't be used everywhere.
Another excellent analysis, Michael. Good to see agrivoltaics mentioned. You note the IEA report estimates 2 million square km (km2) of land area required by 2050 for solar and wind installations. As several analyses in recent years have noted, as electrification supersedes fossil fuel and biomass combustion in the coming decades in nearly every end-use of all sectors (excluding big ships and planes, and some industrial heat processes), the amount of land required for 90 percent of energy services satisfied with solar PV systems would take up ~2 percent of existing cultivated fields. Given 5 billion hectares (50 million km2) of cultivated fields worldwide (3 billion grazing lands and 2 billion croplands), suggests about 10 million km2 of elevated and appropriately spaced agrivoltaics are needed. This is more than IEA's utility-scale solar parks (and wind) estimate, where the solar panels are densely packed together and close to the ground, and which often compete with farmers for prime land, resulting in NIMBY reactions. Compared to nuclear, which also requires significant water use for cooling, the land size differences shrink to inconsequential with agrivoltaics. And wind power, plus end-use efficiency/demand-side flex mgnt, will clearly satisfy a significant component, allowing for the fact that agrivoltaics can't be used everywhere.
Coincidentally, I was discussing keynoting the Canadian agrivoltaics conference early next year just this morning.